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Bayesian

How to invert a probability, and why a 99%-accurate test can be wrong nine times in ten.

Level
Beginner
Lessons
1
Total time
18 min
Simulations
1
Included in Data Analytics: Statistics & Data Visualization · $9
Tools you'll use
  • Python
  • pandas
  • NumPy
Skills
  • Bayes' theorem
  • Base rates
  • Conditional probability
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This is the real simulation from the module. No account needed.

What you will be able to do

  • Invert a probability with Bayes' rule
  • Explain why a 99%-accurate test can be wrong most of the time
  • Update a belief as new evidence arrives

Syllabus

1 lesson · 18 min

Every lesson's title and summary is public. The lessons themselves open once you own the track.

Every lesson in Data Analytics: Statistics & Data Visualization
  1. Inverting a Probability

    18 min

    P(positive | ill) and P(ill | positive) are very different numbers. Swapping them is the most expensive mistake in applied statistics.

    Included with the track Simulation
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